It has long been assumed that Joyce is a Coalition plus in the regions and a minus in the cities, but his regional appeal may be changing in the southern states. If it is, that would mirror the challenges of all major parties, trying to straddle the divide between what voters want in the north compared with the desires in the south-east.
But is he a negative in the southern states, losing his MPs and candidates more votes than he attracts? This is a live question that the National party will be watching, particularly in the seat of Nicholls.
Formerly known as Murray, Nicholls is a Nationals seat on a handy 20% margin. The retirement of its sitting member, Damian Drum, has set up a competition with the Liberals and a high-profile independent, Rob Priestly. There is also a raft of minor candidates whose preferences will scatter.
Priestly ran with it.
The Victorian state seat of Shepparton, held by the independent MP Suzanna Sheed, is contained within the boundaries of Nicholls. Voters in Shepparton, the largest population centre in Nicholls, have had first-hand experience of an independent who is closely aligned to Priestly.
The Nationals know Nicholls will be a close contest and they have been bombarding its voters with personnel and promises. While Scott Morrison has yet to visit, Joyce has been there again, promising $20m for a clinical health school.
Make no mistake, it is a very safe Coalition seat. At the Kyvalley public hall polling booth, near Kyabram, the Nationals polled 88.2% of the vote at the last election.
Whoever wins, Nicholls voters are learning that political alternatives deliver attention. And attention provides services.
