The most irresponsible thing you can do these days is look away from the worst-case scenario." So says Rick Wilson. In the week Fox News fired Tucker Carlson, Wilson's worst-case scenario is this: a successful Carlson campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
Wilson is a longtime Republican operative turned co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project and a media company, Resolute Square, for which he hosts the Enemies List podcast.
He says: "Tucker is one of the very small number of political celebrities in this country who has the name ID, the personal wealth, the stature to actually declare and run for president and in a Republican primary run in the same track Donald Trump did: the transgressive, bad boy candidate, the one who lets you say what you want to say, think what you want to think, act how you want to act, no matter how grotesque it is.
"Among Republicans, he's a beloved figure. He's right now in the Republican universe a martyr - and there ain't nothing they want more than a martyr."
Carlson's martyrdom came suddenly on Monday, in the aftermath of the settled Dominion Voter Systems defamation suit over Trump's election lies and their broadcast by Fox News. The prime-time host, a ratings juggernaut, was gone.
Other than that, he has not hinted what's next. To many, a presidential campaign may seem unthinkable. To Wilson, that is precisely the reason to think it.
"And so I think we live in a world where the most irresponsible thing you can do is look away from the worst-case scenario. I do believe that if Tucker ran for president, there is an argument to be made that he's the one person who could beat Trump."
Now he has lost that platform. Wilson discounts a move to another network or a startup, like the Daily Caller Carlson co-founded in 2010, after leaving CNN and MSNBC. But to Wilson, Carlson has precious assets for any political campaign: "He has an understanding of the camera, he has an understanding of the news media, infrastructure and ecosystem. He can present. He can talk."
Which leads Wilson to Ron DeSantis, still Trump's closest challenger in polling, though he has not declared a run. Carlson "is unlike Ron DeSantis. He can talk to people, you know? He is the guy who can engage people on a human basis. Ron is not that guy."
The Florida governor has fallen as Trump has surged, boosted by his own claimed martyrdom over his criminal indictment and other legal problems. DeSantis has also scored own-goals, from his fight with Disney to his failure to charm his own party, perceived personal failings prompting endorsements for Trump.
Wilson thinks DeSantis's decision to run in a "Tucker Carlson primary", courting the far right, may now rebound.
"DeSantis's people had been bragging for a year. 'Oh, we're winning the Tucker primary. His audience loves us. We're gonna be on Tucker.' And it was an interesting dependency. It was an advantage that DeSantis was booked on Fox all the time and on Tucker, and mentioned on Tucker very frequently. But that has now disappeared. Fox is all back in on Trump."
Wilson knows a thing or two about Republican fundraising. If Carlson ran, he says, he would "absolutely destroy with small donors. He would raise uncounted millions. Mega-donors would not go for it. The racial aspect of Tucker is not exactly hidden. I think that would be a disqualifier for a lot of wealthy donors. But Tucker could offset it. He would be a massive draw in that email fundraising hamster wheel.
"Remember, in 2016 the large-donor money for Trump was very late in the game. Before that, they were all with Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz or Chris Christie.
"I have very high confidence you're gonna see another iteration of, you know, 'We love you Ron, we're never leaving you Ron,' and then they're gonna call him one day and say, 'Hey, Ron, I love you, man. But you're young. Try again next time.' And they'll hang up with Ron and go, 'Mr Trump, where do I send my million dollars?'
"I've been to that rodeo too many times now."
So if Carlson does enter the arena, and does buck DeSantis into the cheap seats, can he do the same to Trump?
"This iteration of Trump's campaign is a lot smarter than the last one. I predict they would say, 'Let's bring Tucker in as VP and stop all this chaos, be done with it. You know, there are very few good options [for Trump] if Tucker gets in the race."
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson? It seems outlandish.
"Again, I think the worst thing we can do is imagine the worst-case scenario can never happen. Because the worst-case scenario has happened any number of times in the last eight years."
